Web-hosted Prediction Markets by inkling

Inkling logo inkling offer hosted prediction markets for everyone from the individual to academic institutions and corporations.

Prediction markets (according to the wikipedia article) are “speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (Will the next US president be a Republican?) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets.”

I first came across the term while reading The Wisdom of Crowds (highly recommended) recently but the concept has been around for some time – one of the most famous examples being the Hollywood Stock Exchange which correctly predicted 35 out of the 40 major-category Oscar nominees in 2002.

I love the site. It’s simple and clean and easy to navigate. They’ve set it up nicely so that a range of potential customers can figure out quickly how to best utilise the service. The project is the brainchild of Adam Siegel and Nathan Kontny (glad I don’t have to spell that to home affairs) and has already received funding from yCombinator. I know there is a similar service by South African’s at www.predictionmarkets.co.za (which incidentally has some pretty interesting markets on the go currently) but I like the look and feel of inkling.

I’d look forward to hearing from the SA guys on the business model for their site…